World Cup 2022: Opta predicts each country’s chances of winning

Reigning champions France are third favorites, in line with Opta, with a 13% likelihood of retaining their title in Qatar

Brazil have not received the World Cup since 2002, however there’s a robust likelihood Qatar 2022 may very well be their yr.

Using Stats Perform’s synthetic intelligence World Cup prediction mannequin, the South Americans have emerged because the favorites to elevate the trophy for a record-extending sixth time. But how effectively are England and Wales going to carry out?

To obtain a extra well-rounded image of who will win the 2022 World Cup, the prediction mannequin estimates the chance of each match final result – win, draw or loss – through the use of betting market odds and Stats Perform’s staff rankings.

The odds and rankings are based mostly on historic and up to date staff performances. The mannequin then considers opponent energy and the issue of their path to the ultimate through the use of match final result chances, making an allowance for the composition of the teams and seedings into the knockout levels.

Opta's World Cup 2022 predictions

Brazil emerge with the very best chance of winning. The five-time winners, who’re general favorites to win, have a 16% likelihood of lifting the trophy in line with the mannequin, and because the general favorites for the event, are additionally the staff with the very best chance of reaching the ultimate (25 %).

Just behind five-time winners Brazil, it’s Argentina who’ve the second-highest chance of winning this yr’s World Cup. Lionel Scaloni’s facet, who’re the favorites in Group C, have a 13% likelihood of happening to scoop the trophy this yr.

Rounding out the highest 5 contenders on the 2022 World Cup are France (12%), Spain (9%) and England (9%).

Despite being the third general favorites to win the event, it’s France who in truth have the very best chance of qualifying for the knockout levels of the event (91%), earlier than the general favorites Brazil (89%).

Croatia, who had been overwhelmed finalists in 2018, look unlikely to repeat that efficiency. Zlatko Dalic’s facet have only a 4% likelihood of making it again to the ultimate this yr, with 11 different groups within the event holding a better chance of doing so.

What are England & Wales’ chances?

Team 1 st 2nd third 4th Last-16 QF SF Final Winner
England 62.9 22.9 10.3 4.0 85.7 56.0 30.9 17.0 8.7
USA 17.0 30.1 29.4 23.4 47.1 19.4 6.6 2.2 0.7
Wales 13.9 28.4 31.3 26.5 42.2 16.9 5.5 1.8 0.6
Iran 6.3 18.6 28.9 46.2 24.9 8.5 2.4 0.7 0.2
Data offered by Opta/Stats Perform (the numbers have been rounded up or down to 1 decimal place)

The United Kingdom will likely be represented by two groups for the primary time because the 1998 World Cup, with England and Wales drawn collectively in Group B.

According to the mannequin, England have a 60% likelihood of topping the group and the fifth-best likelihood of winning the event general (9%). Gareth Southgate’s facet are extremely fancied to a minimum of make the quarter-finals. Their chance of reaching the final eight is 56% – the third-highest share likelihood of any nation on the World Cup.

The prospect of each British groups making the knockout levels is one to observe. Wales’ showdown with the United States appears to be key to their chances of making it out of Group B. They have been given a 41% likelihood of progressing to the final 16, with the USA at a barely greater 45%.

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