Week 11 NFL Picks Against the Spread

Let me steal a line from Mark McGwire to get this column began: I’m not right here to speak about the previous.

Yes, final week was a massacre. It occurs. But we have got 14 new video games on the Week 11 schedule, and it is time to bounce again. Let’s simply get to the picks. My confidence is fragile proper now.

Lines are from FanDuel. Stats are from TruMedia/Pro Football Focus until in any other case famous.

Week 10 document: 4-10

Season document: 77-69-4

Tennessee Titans at Green Bay Packers (-3)

Aaron Rodgers had simply 14 completions on 20 makes an attempt throughout the Packers’ 31-28 win over the Cowboys final week, as Green Bay relied closely on its floor recreation. At 4-6, the Packers aren’t cooked fairly but. They are +340 to make the playoffs, which equates to a couple of 22.7 % likelihood.

Having mentioned that, Green Bay will seemingly should lean on a special components on this recreation. The Titans have the greatest run protection in the NFL, in keeping with Football Outsiders’ DVOA metric.

The Packers are at dwelling. Their backs are towards the wall. And it is solely a three-point unfold. I hate going towards Mike Vrabel as an underdog, however what the hell? I believe I’m able to be harm once more.

The decide: Packers (-3)

Carolina Panthers at Baltimore Ravens (-13)

The Ravens are coming off a bye and appear like a group that is about to go on a run. Their subsequent 4 video games are towards the Panthers, Jaguars, Broncos and Steelers. According to Unpredictable, which measures schedule power primarily based on how the betting markets view groups, the Ravens have the best remaining slate in the NFL. At 6-3, they’re one recreation out of the high seed, however Baltimore would lose the head-to-head tiebreaker towards each the Dolphins and Bills.

The Panthers are 2-3 with Steve Wilks as their head coach and beat the Falcons final Thursday night time. But with Lamar Jackson, the Ravens have gone 7-3-1 towards the unfold as double-digit favorites. I like the Ravens to win massive.

The decide: Ravens (-13)

Cleveland Browns at Buffalo Bills (-7.5)

If you are a Bills fan, final week’s loss to the Vikings stung. But consider all the issues that needed to go fallacious for them to blow that recreation. And then do not forget that the most necessary factor is that Josh Allen appeared wholesome. The Bills are one among two groups (the Eagles are the different) that ranks in the high 5 in each offensive and defensive DVOA. Their three losses have come by a mixed eight factors. This remains to be a very, actually good group.

Jacoby Brissett is all the way down to his final two begins earlier than Deshaun Watson takes over. But barring a miracle, the Browns (3-6) is not going to be competing for a playoff spot. Their odds to make the postseason are at the moment at +810, which equates to about an 11 % likelihood.

It’s attainable that the Bills take their frustrations out on this leaky Browns protection and win by 30. But Cleveland can not less than run the ball, and Buffalo is coping with accidents. I believe it will be comparatively shut.

The decide: Browns (+7.5)

Philadelphia Eagles at Indianapolis Colts (+6.5)

Jeff Saturday acquired a win in his debut as the Colts head coach final week. Two issues helped Indy’s offense. One, they went again to Matt Ryan at quarterback (though experiences out of Indy strongly recommended that proprietor Jim Irsay, and never former head coach Frank Reich, was the one who needed to strive Sam Ehlinger in the first place). And two, they confronted a Raiders protection that ranked thirty second in DVOA.

As for the Eagles, they’re coming off a loss to Washington the place they turned the ball over 4 occasions. Tight finish Dallas Goedert had been taking part in at an All-Pro degree, and now he is injured. Through 10 weeks, amongst tight ends, Goedert is:

  • Second in receiving yards
  • First in yards per reception
  • First in yards after the catch
  • Third in yards per route run

He has additionally been one among the NFL’s greatest blocking tight ends.

But the Eagles nonetheless have AJ Brown and DeVonta Smith on the outdoors. Defensively, their capability to cease the run can be examined on this recreation, however the Eagles have favorable matchups up entrance.

Reich has been a buddy and mentor to Nick Sirianni. The Eagles win massive, and Sirianni throws on a University of Maryland Reich jersey to pay homage to his man.

The decide: Eagles (-6.5)

New York Jets at New England Patriots (-3.5)

These two groups simply performed one another in Week 8, and the Patriots left MetLife Stadium with a 22-17 victory. Zach Wilson threw three interceptions in that recreation.

Both groups have outlined strengths and weaknesses. The Patriots protection is first in EPA per drive, whereas the Jets protection is fourth. The Patriots offense is twenty seventh in EPA per drive, whereas the Jets are twenty third. Mac Jones is thirty fourth out of 35 quarterbacks in EPA per cross play, whereas Wilson is thirtieth.

The good transfer right here might be to take the factors. This figures to be a low-scoring recreation the place the defenses dominate. But till Wilson exhibits me he can get by a recreation like this with out committing crucial turnovers, I’ve to take the different facet.

The decide: Patriots (-3.5)

Washington Commanders at Houston Texans (+3.5)

There was lots manufactured from the Commanders’ working recreation (49 carries for 152 yards) in Monday night time’s win over the Eagles, however WR Terry McLaurin was actually the man who carried them. He completed with eight catches for 128 yards and stored a number of drives alive with spectacular third-down conversions.

The Texans have been aggressive of their Week 10 loss and truly outgained the Giants by 20 yards. The Commanders have a troublesome run protection, however Dameon Pierce has been robust to decelerate. The rookie is at the moment fifth in the NFL with 772 dashing yards.

Washington QB Taylor Heinicke will flip the ball over should you give him sufficient alternatives. I’m not comfy taking the Commanders to cowl greater than a discipline purpose on the highway right here.

The decide: Texans (+3.5)

Los Angeles Rams at New Orleans Saints (-3.5)

We talked lots about each these groups Extra Point Taken. The Rams have had one among the NFL’s worst offenses, and now they’re going to be with out Cooper Kupp. Their season is over, and it is laborious to determine how they’ll get a lot better in 2023, other than hoping for higher damage luck.

The Saints, in the meantime, are in a horrible spot. They’re 3-7 and paying Jameis Winston $15.2 million to take a seat on the bench. They already traded subsequent yr’s first-round decide to the Eagles. That could be the fourth general choice if the season ended as we speak.

I’ve been getting killed by the Rams with these picks all yr, however the Saints are too banged as much as be giving greater than a discipline purpose right here.

The decide: Rams (+3.5)

Detroit Lions at New York Giants (-3)

The Giants have been dying to blow the cowl final week towards the Texans however in some way held on for an eight-point victory. Saquon Barkley rushed 35 occasions for 152 yards in that recreation. The Giants protection allowed 387 yards and 22 first downs.

The Lions appear like a very completely different offense when huge receiver Amon-Ra St. Brown is on the discipline. He had 10 catches on 11 targets for 119 yards in Detroit’s comeback win over the Bears final week.

The Giants are at the moment tied with a league-best 7-2 document towards the unfold. They are a well-coached group, and at 7-2 ought to be a shoo-in for the playoffs. But with St. Brown, the Lions have proven they’ll transfer the ball. I do not assume these groups are as far aside as their information point out.

The decide: Lions (+3)

(*11*)Chicago Bears at Atlanta Falcons (-3)

Over the final 5 weeks, the Bears offense ranks fifth in EPA per drive, and Justin Fields has been flat-out electrical as a runner.

Marcus Mariota appeared horrible throughout the Falcons’ Week 10 loss to the Panthers, however all indications are that head coach Arthur Smith isn’t prepared to show to rookie Desmond Ridder.

The Bears are at the moment placing out one among the NFL’s least gifted defenses. It’s attainable that Mariota and the Falcons bounce again right here. But Fields’s legs are such a dynamic weapon proper now. I like Chicago.

The decide: Bears (+3)

Las Vegas Raiders at Denver Broncos (-2.5)

Derek Carr acquired emotional after the Raiders’ loss to the Colts final week. The Athletic‘s Tashan Reed made the case that Carr could possibly be the fall man after the season, and that looks as if the most probably state of affairs. The Raiders went all in on 2022, buying and selling for Davante Adams and signing Chandler Jones. They are 2-7, and solely the Texans have fewer wins. Just an entire catastrophe for Josh McDaniels.

Before the season, should you would’ve instructed me that the Broncos protection would rank second in EPA per drive by 10 weeks, I’d’ve assumed they have been a Super Bowl contender. Not the case! Denver’s offense is thirty first in DVOA, forward of solely the Colts.

There’s no motive to belief both group, however the Raiders offense has not less than appeared able to transferring the ball at occasions. I’ll take the factors.

The decide: Raiders (+2.5)

Dallas Cowboys at Minnesota Vikings (+1.5)

After final week’s spectacular win towards the Bills, the Vikings at the moment are 5-0 in video games determined by seven factors or fewer. If you are a Vikings fan studying this and screaming “WHO CARES?!” I’m with you! Sports fandom is about being entertained by the group you root for. Are the Vikings performing like a typical 8-1 group? No. But they will win the NFC North, and so they have a shot at the no. 1 seed in the NFC. If you root for the Vikings, you are having fun with this season. Nothing else ought to actually matter.

The Cowboys fell to the Packers final week. They’re 6-3 and could be the 6-seed in the NFC if the playoffs began as we speak. They quietly want this recreation, or issues might begin to get tight with groups like the Packers and Commanders hovering round .500.

I’m nonetheless a giant believer on this Cowboys group and assume they’ve a Super Bowl ceiling. I actually like Dallas to bounce again on this spot.

The decide: Cowboys (-1.5)

Cincinnati Bengals at Pittsburgh Steelers (+3.5)

The Steelers acquired TJ Watt again final week and restricted the Saints to 10 first downs and 186 yards in a 20-10 victory. Pittsburgh’s protection is a very completely different unit with Watt on the discipline. Few defensive gamers in the NFL persistently make the influence that he does.

As for the Bengals, it looks like they’re getting slept on a bit as we enter the last eight weeks. Cincinnati is one among three groups (the Eagles and the Bills are the others) that at the moment ranks in the high 10 in each offensive and defensive DVOA. They have proven that they’ll win in several methods. Having mentioned that, the Bengals’ remaining schedule is brutal. It’s the hardest in the NFL, in keeping with Unpredictable.

The Steelers beat the Bengals in Week 1. It’s a division recreation, and so they’ll have Watt on the discipline. I like Pittsburgh to maintain it shut.

The decide: Steelers (+3.5)

Kansas City Chiefs at Los Angeles Chargers (+5.5)

The Chiefs proceed to boast the greatest offense in the NFL. They are first in anticipated factors added per drive. The hole between the Chiefs and Dolphins (no. 2) is roughly the identical as the distinction between the Dolphins and no. 16 (the Vikings).

The Chargers acquired shut out in the second half of their loss to the 49ers final week. It’s simply laborious for Justin Herbert to do lots, given his supporting forged of cross catchers. As of this writing, it is unclear whether or not the Chargers will get huge receivers Mike Williams and Keenan Allen again for this recreation.

Herbert has appeared lots more healthy the previous couple of weeks and has made plenty of high-level throws. The Chargers have performed the Chiefs robust the final couple of years. I’ll take the factors.

The decide: Chargers (+5.5)

San Francisco 49ers vs. Arizona Cardinals (+8.5)

It’s unclear whether or not the Cardinals can have Kyler Murray (hamstring damage) or Colt McCoy (knee damage) as the beginning quarterback for this recreation in Mexico City.

The 49ers did not precisely gentle it up final week, however they held on for a 22-16 win over the Chargers. Only the Eagles at the moment have higher Super Bowl odds than the 49ers amongst NFC groups.

It’s all the time uncomfortable taking the 49ers with massive traces like this as a result of Kyle Shanahan is one among the NFL’s most conservative in-game decision-makers. But I simply do not consider on this Cardinals group.

The decide: 49ers (-8.5)

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