Darcy Kuemper versus the ex-goalies, Ilya Samsonov and Vitek Vanecek

Yesterday we ran a narrative about Vitek Vanecek and the New Jersey Devils’ absurd profitable streak. Afterwards, on Discord, Ian and I had a bit spat about how accountable Vanecek has been for the Devils’ success. For the file, Ian was completely right when he mentioned that Vanecek has been “no-doubt buoyed by a Devils staff that’s one in all the finest in the NHL early in the season.”

In reply to our story, we obtained a style of feedback that I name “ought to of stored.” This can apply to any participant who has left Washington and gone on to get pleasure from success. To evaluate their performances to that of their replacements in Washington is comprehensible. It’s inevitable to do it. I do it. Actually, let’s all do it proper now.

Let’s evaluate Washington’s outdated goalies, Ilya Samsonov and Vitek Vanecekto their new number-one, Darcy Kuemper.

By file

Vanecek: 8-1-0
Samsonov: 6-2-0
Kuemper: 5-8-1

Winner: Vanecek. By loads, clearly. He’s a part of a traditionally good staff with a bumper crop of thrilling, younger gamers and additionally Dougie Hamilton’s dorky outdated ass.

Meanwhile, Ilya Samsonov had been Toronto’s winsome workhorse earlier than he went down with an harm on November 5. And Kuemper has performed the most video games with the worst file. Bad begin for DK.

By reliability

Well, it isn’t Samsonov, though he might be again as early as subsequent week. I wish to observe that Samsonov has nonetheless technically performed greater than Vanecek, who had been sharing time with Mackenzie Blackwood and Akira Schmid, who has one in all the finest names in the NHL.

Winner: Kuemper, who has performed in a league-high 14 video games. He’s tied with Boston’s Linus Ullmark as the league’s most-used goalie. Ullmark has a slender lead in minutes performed as a result of he does not get pulled as a lot.

By saving proportion

I feel that is the commonest technique to consider goalies, which may be your first clue that I’m but once more performing some silly, cheeky bit about evaluation.

Vanecek: .916
Samsonov: .921
Kuemper: .911

Winner: Samsonov. But perhaps his shorter season has you elevating your eyebrows. Hold on to that thought. At least we will agree that Kuemper is worst by this metric. I imply, we needn’t agree; It’s a reality.

By goals-against common

We’re not doing this. GAA will not be a goalie statistic; it is a staff statistic. Goalies are accountable for stopping the pictures they face; they aren’t accountable for what number of pictures they face. This is the half I used to be most unbearable about in my Discord donnybrook with Ian.

Winner: Hassett. Not up for debate.

By workload

Now stuff will get fascinating. Here’s what number of anticipated objectives every goalie has confronted, utilizing Moneypuck’s reckoning:

Vanecek: 21.4
Samsonov: 21.9
Kuemper: 37.9

Winner: Kuemper. But I do not know if winner is the proper phrase. Kuemper has confronted far more minutes and far more pictures than his friends. That’s largely a operate of the groups enjoying in entrance of those goalies. Here are heatmaps from HockeyViz for the place opponents are capturing towards every goalie. Red means the opponent shoots extra from that location.

I used to be straight-up aghast once I noticed this. Kuemper and Samsonov: nice, no matter, however wow at Vanecek. His job is drastically simpler than different NHL goalies — by 23 proportion factors. That’s an especially comfortable job. He actually gained the lottery when he signed with the Devils.

In context

So this is what number of objectives every goalie has allowed past the variety of objectives we anticipated him to permit, once more utilizing Moneypuck’s reckoning. Expected objectives minus precise objectives.

Vanecek: 0.4 (21 objectives on 21.4 anticipated objectives)
Samsonov: 4.9 (17 objectives on 21.9 anticipated objectives)
Kuemper: 1.9 (36 objectives on 37.9 anticipated objectives)

Winner: Samsonov. Wow, darkish horse. The injured man on the notoriously struggling staff has delivered greater than Vanecek and Kuemper, who’re fairly shut in the context of their workloads, with Kuemper getting the slender edge.


Vitek Vanecek has performed in the most video games which were gained, however he has not gained the most video games, if you happen to catch my tedious drift. Darcy Kuemper has achieved simply nice behind a staff that has struggled with objective assist recently. And Ilya Samsonov performed actually, rather well earlier than he bought damage, a characterization that applies to each this season and his total profession.

Goalies stay inscrutable.

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Headline photographs: Elizabeth Kong/RMNB, Alan Dobbins/RMNB, Vitek Vanecek

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