College basketball early overreactions: Five takeaways from the first two weeks of the 2022-23 season

We’re two weeks and alter into the school basketball season which suggests we will formally glean some info from the outcomes and knowledge we have to this point seen and accrued. Whether or not all of it’s sticky and prescriptive might be (positively!) nonetheless to be decided, however opinions are however being formed on what we all know thus far and what we expect we all know thus far. So why not put pen to paper and dole out some small-sample overreactions? (So ​​we will, inevitably, look again on this in a couple of months and see simply how proper we had been.)

Most groups have performed 4, possibly 5 video games, so rather a lot of these are topic to vary, of course. And groups can and infrequently do change and evolve all through the season as injured gamers return, new groups familiarize themselves and younger gamers develop. But. . . generally early-season outcomes are extra predictive than we lend credence to. And if they’re. . . nicely, that is going to be an issue for a couple of groups (and a boon for a couple of others.)

Let’s bounce proper in and begin with some lows. You cannot spell most of the phrase “low” with out “Louisville,” so the Cardinals are up first.

Lousy Louisville is the worst group in the ACC

It’s been so dangerous for Louisville this season that I feel, so long as we’re doing early-season overreactions, one may moderately simply reduce off “in the ACC” from that prediction and roll with Louisville is the worst group. Kenny Payne’s tenure with the Cardinals is off to a depressing begin. Missing out on five-star recruit DJ Wagner was only a style of how issues have been on the court docket. With a 80-54 blowout loss to No. 9 Arkansas in the Maui Invitational on Monday the Cardinals fell to 0-4 on the season, their worst begin in additional than eight many years (!!).

On Tuesday it obtained worse. Louisville had its lowest offensive output in 74 years in a 70-38 loss to No. 21 Texas Tech.

There are myriad explanation why the Cardinals are usually not a very good basketball group proper now, however No. 1 on the record proper now could be his incapability to take care of the ball. Louisville ranked lifeless final amongst all main convention packages in assist-to-turnover ratio now with 72 turnovers and 31 assists on the season after a shocking 22 turnovers and 4 assists towards Arkansas.

And what’s subsequent for the 0-5 Cardinals? The schedule does them no favors. Louisville performs in the seventh-place sport of the Maui Invitational on Wednesday towards Cincinnati then embarks on this difficult schedule:

Nov. 29 No. 23 Maryland
Dec. 4 Miami
Dec. 10 at Florida State
Dec. 14 Western Kentucky
Dec. 17 Florida A&M
Dec. 20 Lipscomb
Dec. 22 at NC State
Dec. 31 at No. 15 Kentucky

Louisville began 1940-41 with 11 straight losses and has the distinct risk of being 0-10 this season heading into its dwelling sport vs. the Rattlers. But Payne’s debut season is off to a Payne-ful begin the Cardinals.

Villanova is just not the similar with out Jay Wright

Put this in the class of nicely, yeah, duh, however Villanova, because it seems, does not fairly have the similar hum it did beneath Hall of Fame coach Jay Wright that it does thus far beneath his alternative, Kyle Neptune. The Wildcats are 2-2 on the season with losses to Temple and No. 12 Michigan State. Their fashion stays the similar – sluggish as ever with a plodding tempo to grind groups down – however their outcomes are thus far blended.

Not having five-star freshman Cam Whitmore and veteran star Justin Moore, each of whom are coming off accidents, is important and half of the context to why it has began slowly. But Nova seems to be like a tier beneath No. 10 Creighton and no. 20 UConn in the early going. We’ll see if issues change as convention play approaches but it surely may simply be a down 12 months as the Wildcats scrap in a brand new period however this 12 months may carry with it some rising pains the program hasn’t needed to cope with lately.

The Big 12 is huge canine (once more)

There was cause to be bullish in the preseason about the SEC and Big Ten doubtlessly taking down the mighty Big 12 as the finest convention in school hoops. But to this point that optimism has been blunted with an enormous persist with the Big 12’s finest already wanting prefer it may additionally double as school basketball’s finest. Texas is 4-0 and ranked No. 4 in the AP Top 25 and No. 1 in the CBS Sports Top 25 And 1 on the heels of blowing out then-No. 2 Gonzaga. No. 3 Kansas is 4-0 after taking down No. 8 Duke. And each No. 7 Baylor and no. 21 Texas Tech, regardless of one stumble every, have seemed nearly as good or possibly higher than marketed.

Meanwhile in the SEC, huge canine No. 15 Kentucky has seemed tough and No. 22 Tennessee fell flat towards hot-and-cold Colorado, and in the Big Ten, No. 11 Indiana, no. 12 Michigan State, no. 16 Illinois, no. 23 Maryland and no. 25 Iowa, have all been spectacular thus far however no group or groups have been fairly nearly as good as the assortment the Big 12 has at the prime.

Virginia is the class of the ACC

Preseason no. 1 North Carolina has performed nothing to technically lose its rating – it has received every of its 4 video games on the season – but it surely definitely has performed nothing to actually validate that rating, both. Against three groups ranked outdoors the prime 80 at KenPom.com, UNC has a scoring margin that is 54th nationally with closer-than-it-should’ve-been wins towards each UNC Wilmington and Gardner-Webb.

Meanwhile, no. 5 Virginia’s preseason buzz has spilled over into early-season success with one of the most spectacular opening two weeks highlighted by wins in Vegas final week over each Baylor and Illinois. With Duke not at full energy but and UNC wobbling early, the Cavaliers appear to be contenders as soon as once more beneath Tony Bennett and look like the class of the ACC till additional discover.

Big Ten exceeding its lofty expectations

There had been simply three Big Ten groups ranked in the preseason AP Top 25 – Indiana, Michigan and Illinois, which was fewer than the Big 12 and SEC – however a whopping six groups from the convention landed inside the AP Top 25’s newest rankings on Monday. That’s greater than every other main convention. Its rise has been bolstered by sturdy early-season showings from Michigan State, Maryland, Purdue and Iowa, all of which had been unranked in the preseason however are a mixed 15-1 to begin the season with wins over Kentucky and Villanova (to Michigan State ), Saint Louis and Miami (to Maryland), Marquette (to Purdue) and Seton Hall (to Iowa).

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